Here we are again, another Super Bowl. Super Bowl 44 brings us the two last teams to remain undefeated throughout the regular season. No wild card teams, or teams that squeaked into the playoffs. Without a doubt the New Orleans Saints and the Indianapolis Colts were the two most dominating teams in the NFL in 2009.

Game Information

• Date:  February 7, 2010
• Time: 6PM
• Location: Miami, Florida
• TV Network: CBS
• BetUS.com Spread: Colts -5 1/2
  Over/Under 57 Points

Editors Note:  Just to gloat a bit, ProFootballInsight’s Kurt Fraschetti nailed last years points spread winner.  Click here to view the article.

Tale of the Tape

Regular Season Statistics   Colts                                                            Saints

Record                                       14-2                                                                 13-3

PF                                                   416                                                                  510

PA                                                   307                                                                 341

TD                                                   53                                                                    64

YPG                                           363.1 (9th)                                                  403.8 (1st)

Passing YPG                       282.2 (2nd)                                                272.4 (4th)

Rushing YPG                      80.9 (last)                                                    131.6 (6th)

Game Insight

For the Saints to be successful on Super Bowl Sunday, they will have to devise a game plan to completely throw Peyton Manning off!  This is what the entire NFL tried to do all of the regular season, which occurred with little or no success.  Your initial thought would be to play “keep away” with Peyton and dominate the ball with your offense and kill the game clock, winning the time of possession war.  Sounds good in theory, but remember Week 2 of the regular season. The Miami Dolphins absolutely dominated the time of possession war, as they had the ball offensively 45:07 minutes out the 60 minutes in a NFL game!  With only having the ball in his hands less than 15 minutes, Peyton Manning still had 303 yards and 2 TD’s.  So this theory was tried and failed.  The simple fact of the matter is, regardless how great the Saints offense plays, if Peyton Manning is not having an “off” day, or you do not rattle him, he has the composure and the skill set to find the way to victory, as he has shown all season long.

It is remarkable that the Colts appear to be the same exact team they were a year ago, two years ago, and so on and so on even with the loss of Tony Dungy.  Jim Caldwell, the Colts head coach is currently 16-2 as a NFL head coach, and those two losses can be attributed to his decision to sit his starters at the end of the regular season.  The Colts also have the bonus of playing the Super Bowl in the same location that they did in 2005, which resulted in a victory.  The experience of not only being battle tested with nearly half of their team playing on that Super Bowl winning team, but having the comfort factor of this experience not being new should allow the Colts to focus more on the game and the Saints, versus all of the new sights and sounds and experiences, which are all new to the Saints.

As far as the Colts defense is concerned, they have played solid football throughout the year.  Although they did not face an offense with the firepower that the Saints bring to the table this year, they did bottle up the Cardinals to 10 points in Week 3, and held the Texans to 17 points in Week 9.  Their worst defensive performance where they did not rest starters came in Week 10, where they allowed 34 points to the New England Patriots, which still resulted in a victory for the Colts, barely!

On the other side, the Saints boast the leagues most explosive offense, and have a solid defense as well.  Their offense made teams with defenses that are considered to be elite, look mediocre.  In Week 2, the Saints dropped 48 on the Eagles, four weeks later they dumped another 48 points on the Giants, and followed up the following week by pouring 46 points all over the Dolphins.  Week 12 led to a 38 to 17 point dismantling of the New England Patriots, which the Patriots games are a great measuring stick for both Super Bowl teams.

I feel that both teams are evenly matched, and this on paper lays out nicely for a great Super Bowl.  As I started off with, the one difference maker on both teams that can win or lose the game is Peyton Manning.  This is not to downplay Drew Brees in any way.  Over the past four years, Brees is the statistical leader among all NFL Quarterbacks, and if the Saints were playing any other team, Brees would be that X-Factor.  The difference between the two is the weapons surrounding each quarterback.  Drew Brees has more gifted athletes around him than he knows what to do with.  If the Saints want to pound the ball on the ground, they can.  If they want to light you up through the air for 400 plus yards, they can.  The Saints can kill you offensively on so many different levels and from every direction.  On the other hand, Peyton Manning has abused defenses without any running game to speak of at all.  He has Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark in his arsenal, period.  Peyton has had to develop receivers that 98 percent of American households have never heard of, ever!  With the loss of Anthony Gonzalez for nearly all of the season, and the departure of Marvin Harrision, names like Pierre Garson and Austin Collie surfaced.  The Colts offense with anyone other than Peyton this year would not be effective.  The Saints offense minus Drew Brees still has firepower.

With all of that said, I feel strongly that the Saints will cover the spread.  I am more confident in their covering the spread than predicting the winner, or the over/ under.  Speaking of the over / under, I see the under hitting, and if I was forced into a game winner, I cannot bet against Peyton Manning finding and willing the Colts to victory.  These predictions are based on both teams controlling their locker rooms and players heading into the week before the Super Bowl.  Any ill advised arrests, bulletin board material, assaults or team disciplinary actions taken against players can and will alter the way in which I see the games outcome.

Become a fan of ProFootballinsight on Facebook or follow fraschettik on Twitter for instant article notifications and more.

Kurt Fraschetti / ProFootballinsight.net

Kurt@profootballinsight.net